I want estimates from BUILDERS. I don't want estimates from DEVELOPERS. There's no conflict here: we're talking about two completely different things.

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0:00 Start
0:32 Pushback
1:06 Misconceptions
2:18 Quote vs. Estimate
4:18 Agile... and Certainty
4:57 Apples and Oranges
5:42 Estimate vs. Forecast
7:08 Cause and Effect




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151. Agile Estimates. Builders Estimates. Not the same.
#AgileEstimating #AgileForecasting #DevelopmentThatPays

Gary Straughan: Builders estimate, agile developers estimate. I want estimates from builders. I don't want estimates from developers. And there's no conflict here because we're talking about two completely different things. Welcome to Development That Pays. My name is Gary Straughan and welcome back to this short series on agile estimates and estimating. If you'd like to catch up, this link will take you back to the beginning and deliver you safely right back here. Now we have a couple of episodes under our belt and already there's been some pushback including this rather wonderful comment. "I get the point that it would be nice to work without the pressure of estimating, but I think that none of the no-estimation advocates would hire a company for building a house that does not give an estimation or fixed price for the cost of the house. I would not pay for a software team that can't give me a rough idea of the cost for the features that I want." I love this comment because while it hints at two common misconceptions around agile estimate. Two misconceptions that I'm going to call apples and oranges and cause and effect. It also mentions builders and I've noticed that in discussions around estimates and estimating, builders often seem to get a mention. Let's talk about builders a little bit more. I've yet to build a house, but I've done my fair share of remodeling. My most recent project, I should say our most recent project, was to swap out these horrible old doors for something much more fancy. It's a project that's been, well a very long time in the making. It's taken us the best part of a decade to find the perfect door. But having found it, we kicked things off by getting two things. A quotation, quote for short, from the door company, and an estimate for the preparation work from a builder. That's right, I admit it, I asked for an estimate. We'll get to whether that makes me a huge hypocrite in due course. But first it's worth taking a moment to think about why it is that the door company provided a quote and why the builder provided an estimate, and it's all to do really with certainty or the lack thereof. The door company we went with was the very first company that we visited some 10 years ago. I know for certain that they've built a lot of doors, they've installed a lot of doors. They are very, very experienced and that experience has taught them that given the right preconditions, we'll talk more about those in a second, given the right preconditions, things go smoothly most of the time. That level of certainty allows them to provide a fixed price, as I said, a quote. Now the door came with very many preconditions, including but by no means limited to dropping this big lump of stone by a couple of inches, flattening the arch at the top and straightening out the sides. Time to engage the services of a builder. The builder we went with has been my neighbor for the best part of two decades. I know for sure that he too has a wealth of experience and his experience has shown him that nothing is certain. My house, like many here in London is well over a hundred years old. You never know what you're going to find when you start tearing things apart. That's why my friendly neighborhood builder provides an estimate. The estimate is the price I'll pay if things go reasonably smoothly, but if anything nasty is discovered, well the builder and I are going to be having a conversation, and inevitably I'm going to be paying more money. I think you know how these things work. Now all this talk of certainty or lack thereof sounds a little bit like, well the very reason that we do agile. We treat the world as being very uncertain, so we go away and build something, get it in front of the customer and go on from there. Inspection and adaptation all the way. So I have a question for you. Is our world closer to that of the door company or is it closer to that of the builder Well, clearly it's the latter, which is a relief. I don'
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