There's one part of estimating that's good. Valuable, even. But we can do even better.

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150. The BEST part of Estimating. And how to ditch it.
#AgileEstimating #NoEstimates #DevelopmentThatPays

Previously: I threw Estimates under the bus. Today: we’ll look at the part of Agile Estimating that YOU told me is the most valuable: What I like to call the “estimating conversation”. I’ll also introduce you to what I consider to be a BETTER conversation. And how to eliminate it. (GASP!) Are you familiar with the saying “Cutting the Gordian Knot” Thanks to one of you I now have a great example of it. Let me explain. Around about 3 years ago, I concluded that estimates - in an Agile world - were evil. And I started to look at whether we could do without them. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that we create estimates in an attempt to predict the future: Everything from selecting work for the next Sprint (if you’re doing Scrum) to long range forecasting. As it turns out, we don’t need estimates for either of those things. But here’s the thing: If we don’t need estimates, then we don’t need…. Estimating: the process of estimating. What I call the “estimating conversation”. And this - As many of you told me in a recent survey - that’s the most valuable part of agile estimating. So what to do To me, my task was clear: I had to find a replacement for the estimating conversation. A knotty problem indeed! It never occurred to me that there might be a simpler solution… Until I read this in those survey responses: Some of my teams estimate but dump all the numbers after that because the value for the team is created by the discussion, not the numbers And there is it: a perfect example of cutting the Gordian Knot. However, I’m not entirely happy with this solution. For a couple of reasons. Firstly if we’re still estimating, then estimates are being produced. And if they are being produced, can we really guarantee they won’t leak out in to the world And secondly, the typical agile “estimating conversation” - isn’t as good as we might think. Yes, it does have gamification on its side: Equipping each team member with a set of Story Points cards is a neat way of engaging the entire team. And when the cards are shown - and if there’s a difference of opinion - there’s the opportunity to further improve the team’s understanding of the Story at hand. I’ll go further and say that use of the Fibonacci series is a nice touch - helping us to stick to ball-park (rather than “accurate”) estimates. But the abstract nature of Story Point is a barrier to entry. Perhaps you’ve forgotten how difficult it was for you NOT to think in terms of time (You have stopped thinking about time, haven’t you ) In any case, it adds cognitive load. And perhaps you’ve also forgotten the calibration process you had to go through to determine the exact size of a Story Point for your team. More cognitive load. And then there’s the problem of anchoring. It’s the tendency to give too much weight to the first number put forth in a discussion and then inadequately adjust from that starting point - the starting point known as the “anchor.” Why might this be relevant Well, even if the Story Point estimate for the Story never leaves the room, It leaves an impression on those that produced it. And it can impact how they approach development: A developer picking up high Story Point item is expecting to do a lot of work, and that might blind him or her to a quick solution or shortcut. To give you my assessment of the estimating conversation: Gamification good. Fibonnaci series good ish. Everything else… not good. I’ve kept you waiting long enough. Let me introduce you to a better conversation.. It’s called: “Story Slicing” Stay with me here. There’s a good chance that you’re already familiar with Story Slicing. You might already be doing it. But perhaps - like me! - didn’t fully appreciate its power. On the face of it, Story Slicing is… exactly what it sounds like. You take a Story… and you figure out how to split it. Divide it. Slice it. With an important caveat: the slicing must be vertical. Meaning that each of the “slices” is “potentially releasable” - a complete story in its own right. Now slicing is one of those things that’s as much a
   • The BEST part of Estimating. And how ...