The biggest problem in Agile today is the degree to which we rely on estimates.

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153. Time to stop the madness. Time to stop estimating.
#NoEstimates #DevelopmentThatPays

Today’s episode isn’t just the end of this series, it’s the end of a journey that began 6 years ago… In 2016 - I asked the viewers if this channel about worst bit of agile And discovered that I wasn’t the only one that had concerns around estimates. It’s a thorny issue - especially as the process of estimating - is generally well-regarded as a great way of getting shared understanding o the work. A weird case of the means justifying the end A couple of years went by and I eventually knucked down to build a course on how to get better at estimating. I had most of it done and dusted when I stumbled across THIS VIDEO. And it really spoiled my day. This is Woody Zuill. Woody, as you may know, is the originator of #NoEstimates. I’ll put a link to the full 90 minute talk in the description below. But I want to play you a very short section where he shares an analogy // is that enough “Maybe not eating the junk food is the best solution“ The moment that I saw that, … I couldn’t say how or why but.. I was sure it was true. What we’re trying to do with estimates … … what I was trying to do with my course … is the same as trying to “chew junk food better.” We shouldn’t be trying to get better… get rid. For the first time I saw that there’s a whole industry out there dedicated to “how to estimate” and “how to get better at estimating”. And I knew right then that I couldn’t have any part of it: I had no choice but to take a hatchet to my course. // I’ve worked this in later Of course, eliminating [getting rid ] estimates is easier said than done, given that they’ve somehow weaved their way into, well, just about everything we do: Take a look at this: We start by estimating. That gives us Estimates. From estimates (over multiple Sprints) we can calculate (derive ) velocity And estimates and velocity are used jointly and severally for, well, all kinds of things: And for all manner of charts and reports - Burn ups, burn downs, that sort of thing Including… Forecasting // Say why splitting out selecting items from the Sprint Backlog So yeah, we’re tied in. Sadly, there’s a lot here that isn’t… ideal Not just the [potential] evil-ness of estimates (as we talked about in Part 1) But also the impracticality of Forecasting, requiring, as we saw in Part 3… the entire backlog to be estimated.
   • Time to stop the madness. Time to sto...