If valuation is a craft, there is no better company to hone that craft on than Tesla. I have valued Tesla almost every year since 2013, and while I have been woefully wrong on occasion, I return to the scene of the crime, to do it again. I review my 2013 valuation of Tesla briefly, before looking at lessons learned in subsequent valuations (story stock in 2016, corporate teenage in 2019, trillion-dollar wonder in 2021 and back-to-earth in January 2023). I then look at what this year has brought for Tesla, both in the market (a soaring first half of 2023, followed by stumbles in the second half) as well as as news (earnings reports and news stories). I focus in on three big news stories - the price cuts, the much-debated advances in FSD and the Cybertruck, and use those stories to reframe the valuation of the company, breaking it down into four businesses (auto, energy, software and robotaxi). With pathways (optimistic, albeit plausible) pathways to success in each business, I estimate a value per share of about $180. Needless to say, you will disagree with me on almost every part of my story, but use the spreadsheet which is attached to make it your own.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/...
Valuation of Tesla: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...