I have valued Tesla multiple times over the last decade, but my most recent valuation of the company was in November 2021, just as it's market cap crested $1 trillion and the stock was trading at $1200+ a share ($400 in current share count terms). I valued the company at about $576/share, and noted that even with my optimistic assumptions for revenues and margins, I could not get the value to the pricing. In the last year, the market has turned for Tesla, and I revalue the company, with updated information on the company, its founder/CEO and the market. While my overall market, margins and reinvestment assumptions have not only not changed, but been reaffirmed by Tesla's operating results in 2022, the value per share that I get is $130, about 10% below the price at close of trading on Jan 25, 2023. The stock is slightly overvalued, and perhaps more so after today's post earnings jump in its price, but it is in play. More generally, I use the Tesla valuation to talk about the dangers of tying companies to personalities, how some companies may evade the laws of business for a while, before it catches up with them, and the very real issue of how political is permeating investing and business. Put simply, it is very likely that those who agree (disagree) politically with Musk are now more likely to Tesla bulls (bears).
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Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/...
Valuation of Tesla on Jan 25, 2023: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...