Royal Aeronautical Society Heathrow Branch October 2020 Lecture via WEBINAR -
"Bumpy Skies Ahead: Turbulence Forecasting and Response to Climate Change"
by Dr Luke Storer, PhD Researcher, University of Reading


ABSTRACT:
Atmospheric turbulence is a major aviation hazard, costing the aviation industry millions of dollars each year through aircraft damage and injuries to passengers and crew. We know that climate change is impacting the weather globally and studies have shown it will increase Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) over the North Atlantic. Therefore, in this session, the speaker will examine if this increase in CAT with climate change will be experienced around the world and at multiple flight levels.

With the changing climate, it will become more important to improve the way to forecast turbulence in order to maintain aviation safety. Therefore, the speaker will also discuss how using multi-model ensembles to forecast CAT can provide a better forecast for flight planners and crew with more useful information. The speaker will extend this further to show that including indicators for multiple sources of aviation turbulence (such as clear-air turbulence, convectively induced turbulence and mountain wave turbulence) will again increase forecast skill.


ABOUT THE SPEAKER:
Luke Storer studied Meteorology and Climate at the University of Reading covering topics such as atmospheric dynamics and climate change. During this time, he was also a player and coach of the university’s American Football team. He then spent a year in America, at the University of Oklahoma covering a variety of topics including radar meteorology, synoptic scale meteorology and computer simulations. In his spare time, he participated in numerous storm chases.

In Luke’s final year he was able to bring together his two passions, meteorology and aviation, by researching the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the jet stream and the potential impact on trans-Atlantic flight times.

Following on from Luke’s undergraduate master’s degree he went onto complete a PhD at the University of Readying. Again, he was able to combine meteorology and aviation by examining the impact of climate change on Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) and designing a new way of forecasting turbulence with the Met Office with the aim of improving aviation safety.

With a passion for sustainability, Luke wanted to further understand the aviation industry and gain a different perspective from academic research.

Since January 2019 he has been working as a Data Science Consultant for British Airways, focussing on their strategic partner airlines.


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