In the episode of Worldview, we discuss the geopolitical and geospatial angles of the India-China military standoff at the Line of Actual Control since 2020

As China’s claims over India’s easternmost state of Arunachal Pradesh get shriller, and what the MEA calls more absurd, the US wades in, says it backs India’s territorial sovereignty in Arunachal? Is Beijing preparing for a bigger confrontation over the boundary, and how do Bhutan-China boundary talks fit in?

-Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a visit to Arunachal Pradesh on March 9, to inaugurate a number of projects, including most notably, the Sela Tunnel at a height of 13,000 ft, meant to be an all-weather access to Tawang and especially for troops heading to the Line of Actual Control with China
-Within days China’s Foreign Ministry and its Defence Ministry spokespersons had issued statement, making claims on Arunachal Pradesh and even suggesting that the PM’s visit would “disrupt” India-China talks to resolve the 4-year old military standoff at the LAC
-India’s response was equally sharp, MEA calling the claims absurd, and asserting Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India
Significantly, the US State department also waded into the spat, saying it recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as a part of India. The comments are interesting, and while many in India welcomed them, it would be a double edged sword if the US began recognising individual parts of India, like Jammu Kashmir, Ladakh, PoK etc as Delhi and Washington may have differences there.
Meanwhile the big diplomacy moves this week were over India and Bhutan, as Bhutanese PM Tshering Tobgay visited India, and PM Modi headed to Thimpu in practically back-to-back visits. Mr. Modi’s visit was particularly significant as by convention, PMs do not travel abroad after elections are announced, and he went despite having to put the visit off by a day due to the weather. While the ostensible reason for the visit was to receive an award from the Bhutanese King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, the important discussions with both the King and his father, former King Jigme Singye Wangchuck is to discuss bilateral issues like hydropower, investment in infrastructure and the Gelephu Mindfulness city project, and importantly, Bhutan-China boundary talks and the direction they will take.
China’s claims over Arunachal have become shriller and more determined in the last few years:
1. China has renamed Arunachal Pradesh in its maps as Zangnan( South Tibet) and published new maps with Chinese names for Arunachal towns, despite the fact that they are firmly in Indian territory
2. China routinely protests visits by PM Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to the state, and also by the US Ambassador
3. China is building border villages, which India believes are dual purpose, for military use as well, in possible preparation for operations at the LAC. China has recently passed laws that more or less allow it to claim land where it has settled populations
4. India is also speeding up border infrastructure, and improving villages along the LAC, of course, but Beijing’s intentions towards the region, given how it has made assertions in the south china sea and Taiwan, are a growing worry.
There is an important paper brought out by Takshshila where you can look at how the border villages are coming up, using geospatial imagery
A word about Bhutan-China boundary talks (Map would be great here)
1. These began in 1984, and the two sides have held 25 rounds of talks, mainly over the resolution of 2 valleys to Bhutan’s north Jakarlung and Pasamlung, and Doklam to the West of Bhutan, just above the trijunction with India.
2. Bhutan and China don’t have full diplomatic ties, don’t maintain embassies, but Bhutan and the Tibetan Autonomous Region share a contiguous border to Bhutan’s north and west of about 470 km. Bhutan is keen to demarcate this boundary, and China is keen to ensure a swap where it keeps the dominant part of Doklam plateau instead of the northern valleys.
3. Talks had come to a standstill in 2016, followed by the India-China Doklam standoff in 2017, and subsequently the Covid pandemic.
4. In 2020, China laid a new claim, on Sakteng to Bhutan’s east, which also abuts Arunachal Pradesh, effectively putting pressure on Bhutan to make progress on talks
5. Once talks restarted in 2021, Bhutan and China made quick progress, signing a 3-step roadmap to demarcate the boundary
In 2023, Bhutan and China also signed a cooperation agreement for the Joint Technical Team to carry out and mark the demarcated boundaries on the ground and on paper.