https://www.rescue.org/press-release/...

IRC: World risks up to 1 billion cases and 3.2 million deaths from COVID-19 across fragile countries 500 million and 1 billion infections, leading to between 1.7 to 3.2 million deaths, in 34 conflict-affected and fragile countries.

A small window of time left

Estimates are based on Chinese data, but,

Less health care than china

Venezuela

Refugee camps Syria, Greece and Bangladesh

Population density, X 8.5 Diamond princess where transmission of the virus was up to four times faster than in Wuhan

Limited access to water, sanitation and hygiene found in displacement camps, the disease will spread fast and could devastate communities

Yemen
Somalia
South Sudan
Syria
DRC
CAR
Chad
Sudan
Afghanistan
Zimbabwe
Guinea
Haiti
Iraq
Nigeria

Imperial modelling
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/impe...

Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression

In the absence of interventions

7.0 billion infections

40 million deaths globally this year

Mitigation strategies

Shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) + Slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) save 20 million lives

Even in this scenario, all Health systems will be quickly overwhelmed

In a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25

US and UK R0 = 2.4 – 3.3

3 day doubling time

UK deaths, 490,000
US deaths 2,180,000

Balance of risk in LICs

Lower age profile

Social conditions

Social unrest

Malnutrition, HIV, TB, Malaria, Yellow fever, STIs

Need the rapid adoption of public health measures to suppress transmission,

Testing and isolation of cases

Wider social distancing measures

Rapid isolation

Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.

Social and economic costs of suppression, may be disproportionately in lower income settings

Healthcare Availability
LICs, 1.24 beds per 1000
HICs, 4.82 beds per 1000