S&P 500 Outlook: Correction Looms as CPI Data and Fed Policy Weigh
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 Published On Mar 11, 2024

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Short-Term S&P 500 Outlook – Tuesday, March 12, 2024

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended down slightly in overnight trading with market participants preparing for tonight’s consumer price index release for February and Thursday’s producer price data. Tonight’s CPI release is key as far as Fed ponders about interest cuts this year.

Yesterday, March 11 came and gone. It was the day the Fed’s emergency lending program to troubled financial institutions last March expired. Now that regional banks with huge exposure to the commercial real estate no longer have access to “cheap” financing, will this single one event tank the US equity markets going forward?

The answer to this question is still out there. But technically, there is a case that US equity markets may have peaked last Friday after a disappointing non-farm payrolls number. What is obvious is that, at the very least, a sizable correction is long overdue.

After all, we have seen a mesmerizing rally in US equities with the S&P 500 gaining an incredible 26.5% from last October low over a 5 ½ month period and is 7.72% higher than the previous peak which was registered at the start of 2022.

The S&P 500 lost 5.75 points, or 0.11%, overnight to close at 5,117.94 after last Friday’s steep selloff right after registering a fresh all-time high at 5,188.9.

One thing is clear. Market reactions to tonight’s CPI release could be very revealing as the tech stock rally appears to be faltering of late.

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