Skeptical empiricist Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", has bracing things to say about the future. It is inevitable that we will be massively blindsided by events, because our understanding is misled by an array of beguiling illusions about reality. Some lessons: Events are not predictable, but consequences are, so focus on preparedness. Pay attention to elders, because they've experienced more Black Swans. Check Wikipedia's bio: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_T... of Taleb for more on the vividness of his ideas and exposition.

"The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought" was given on February 04, 02008 as part of Long Now's Seminar series. The series was started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking from some of the world's leading thinkers. The Seminars take place in San Francisco and are curated and hosted by Stewart Brand. To follow the talks, you can:

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