According to Tesla investor and host of YouTube’s Hyperchange channel Galileo Russell, the production yield of the 4680 battery cells has reportedly risen to about 70-80%, up from just about 20% last year. This means that a decreasing portion of the 4680 cells produced today are seeing issues, and Tesla’s pilot battery line at Kato Road is starting to close in on the acceptable yields of factories like Giga Nevada.

Keep in mind that Tesla is continuously improving its product lines. 70-80% today came from 20%-30% initial pilot runs. They will find a way to get to 90% and higher.

Also, remember that Musk said, prototypes are easy, production is the hard part.

Since there is an engineering issue rather than a concept issue, the issue will probably be fixed. All should be well. When Musk was confronted by cost issues in the SpaceX program, he reduced the cost from 26 Billion to 1 Billion to restart the space program, using existing engineering fixes/modifications, etc. The same should apply to the 4680 battery cell manufacturing process.

I feel like Tesla's 4680 battery cell production development is going to follow the same path as the Raptor engine. Very slow development at the beginning but at some point, they will pump those cells out of the line fast.

Torque News Electric Vehicle contributor Dean McManis says "as far as I could tell the rumor about 2170 batteries replacing the 4680s is just that. A single online rumor. While I'm sure that Tesla does have a contingency plan to use the 2170 batteries if they can't make enough good 4680 batteries, there is only (One) unconfirmed rumor saying that this is actually going to happen. On the other side of the spectrum, I also think that a self-professed Tesla investor's opinion about increased 4680 yields hitting 70-80% is also just an informed guess. I seriously believe that Tesla NEEDS to release the German Gen II Model Y using the 4680 batteries. They have long hyped up the special and unique design of the German-built Model Y. And not following through with that promise would seriously hurt Tesla sales. I think that the whole 4680 output of the Kato road battery factory so far has been stockpiled for future use in the German Model Ys. We should know for sure in just a few month's time when they start Gen II Model Y production in Giga Berlin."

The question is how good Tesla's 4680 cells 70-80% actually is.

Throwing away 20-30% of all produced batteries seems a lot to me but I don't really know what the typical yield for a battery plant is. Any numbers on that? (Edit: of course the faulty cells would not be thrown away but recycled). 75% yield means your production cost is 33% higher. Given that Tesla's estimate is that the new battery will reduce the cost by half then 70% yield is good enough for mass production.

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This is Armen Hareyan from Torque News. Please follow us at   / torquenewsauto   on Twitter and https://www.torquenews.com/ for daily automotive news.

Reference
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