In the Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino made a statement about the 4680 production ramp that contained a lot of new information. Today I’m going to break down what he said line-by-line, what the implications are for the 4680 ramp, and what the impact could be on Tesla’s Cost of Goods sold.

In short, after 3 years of waiting, it appears 4680 cell production is finally poised to deliver on the exponential growth and cell cost reductions that were teased at Battery Day.

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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:00 4680 Production Growth Rate
02:05 Texas is now the Home of the 4680
02:41 4680 Quality Control and Cost
04:41 4680 Production Starts on Line 2 in Texas
05:48 Converting to 100% Cybertruck Cells
10:53 Phase 2 Expansion Plans
11:48 4680 Capacity Plans for all Locations
13:32 Kato Road Skunkworks
16:32 4680 Ramp // Plans vs Reality
18:23 Projecting the 4680 Production Ramp
18:59 Will the 21% Month over Month Improvement Rate Continue?
21:03 Phase 2 Aligns with my Projections
22:42 Where will the Cells be Used?
25:19 How Much will the 4680 Reduce Vehicle Cost of Goods Sold?
28:29 Closing Thoughts


Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said