FACE THE TRUTH: When will this Lock Down & Pandemic end??? // Corona virus update
Idea Seed Africa Idea Seed Africa
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 Published On Apr 10, 2020

It's April 2020. Most of us are locked down. I don't think anyone ever thought that this situation might really become reality. Especially if you are an entrepreneur, self-employed etc., one question is most important for you to answer based on facts: WHEN WILL THIS LOCK DOWN POSSIBLY END?

And here are some facts in this video.

Since the Germans done a fantastic job regarding publishing facts, figures and research papers, I'm going through some of the numbers and model calculations in this video. Of course you have to take my approach and apply it to your country, e.g. take the numbers of your health system (like available beds and ventilators) to know when a critical point and possibly collapse will be reached. All links to the documents can be found below.

This is the paper in which the calculation for the basic reproduction number R0 based on the pandemic in China (Zhao et al. 2020, Int J Infect Dis, 92:214-217): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3...

This is the paper by the German Society for Epidemiology (only available in German, sorry) from which I took the graphs to show the effects of measures on the reproduction number and the spread of the pandemic:
https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungn...

Here you can play with the Epidemic Calculator. Use different parameters to see the effects of measures in your country and how many people might get infected (including the deaths) over a specific period of time:
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

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