In this video, Vicky Mabin talks about a new Theory of Constraints thinking process tree that she has invented with a student. It is called the Conditional Reality Tree. It is not quite official yet; it is still going through the validation process. This new tree has been developed by a PhD research student of Vicky, Dr. Abeer Youssef. She has been her supervisor and closely involved in the development process.

The Conditional Reality Tree has arisen because in situations where something is about to happen, and people are not acting fast enough or taking the necessary actions, we need a way to describe what might develop and worsen over time. None of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) trees currently fit this scenario. The Current Reality Tree (CRT) is used to describe the present situation, full of undesirable effects. The Future Reality Tree (FRT) involves injecting changes at the bottom to work towards our desired future. However, there are situations where we need to describe something that we think will happen or are worried about if a particular trend occurs. In this case, we can see that things will deteriorate in the future. Since it is about the future, we cannot use the Current Reality Tree.

The Conditional Reality Tree requires some future conditions to start it off. It includes lots of undesired effects, so it is not a Future Reality Tree, which typically represents our desired path. That is why we needed this new tree, and they have named it the Conditional Reality Tree because it is based on starting assumptions or conditions that are yet to happen. It will show what the reality is likely to be if those conditions occur.

This video was recorded in the United States in Hollywood Florida in 2023 at the TOCICO conference.


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