Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)". It brings together the ideas from my recent video series into a coherent narrative. The digital version is out now available at https://amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read it for free, you are still supporting the channel.) Physical edition coming soon!

Due to the recent events in Ukraine, the United States mobilized about 3000 soldiers, sending them to Poland and Romania. They pale in comparison to the estimated 130,000 soldiers Russia has lined up around Ukraine. If Russia were to use Ukraine as a stepping stone to move further west, the 3000 troops would stand no chance. So why didn't the U.S. send more?

The answer is tripwires. Those soldiers will be the first casualties of war, and force the United States to respond. Internalizing the credible threat of retribution, Russia would not want to advance any further.

This video describes how tripwire mechanisms work, discussing a historical example of West Berlin during the Cold War and connecting the idea to modern-day crisis bargaining theory.

The photo of the soldiers lined up from the Bundesarchiv and is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 DE: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...

The photo of the Soviet Congress is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 International: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...