The road to decarbonizing every single home goes through HVAC contractors.

In North America, the perfect opportunity to decarbonize a home presents itself roughly once every six seconds when a heating or cooling equipment breaks down at someone's home. However, 85% of home heating and cooling replacements happen under duress. When equipment breaks during the warmest or coldest months of the year, homeowners making large budgetary decisions under duress default to picking the contractor offering the cheapest quote. This sets up a race to the bottom for contractors who are looking to make the fastest sale and the easiest like-for-like system replacement, locking in carbon infrastructure in a home for another 15-20 years.

(Suggedted) discussion topics for fellow Boundary Spanners:

How can I leverage this army of HVAC contractors - who are always the first point of contact for homeowners when their furnace or air conditioner or water heater breaks down - towards decarbonization?

How can I design boots-on the ground policy WITH HVAC contractors rather than design programs FOR them, from afar? Would such partnerships help pave the way for enlisting the experience, expertise and the support of HVAC contractors towards decarbonising homes?

What happens when decarbonization as a goal is layered on top of an industry that is experiencing the kind of 'race-to-the bottom system replacement under duress' dynamics? Is my policy accounting for these dynamics? If it isn’t, then is it possible that my policy is actively feeding this race to the bottom and making it worse?