In 2022 and 2023, Gary Jones of River Rock Advisers helped BISG's Supply Chain Committee reconsider what drives effective forecasting in the book business. At the start of 2023, he presented his perspective in three consecutive Lunch & Learn sessions. When supply was threatened by a potential UPS strike that wound up getting resolved near its deadline, Gary returned in August 2023 to walk through how to think about that specific use case.

Last month, supply disruptions were again front of mind, as our Lunch & Learn participants from the Woodland Group dissected the impact of reduced capacity navigating the Suez and Panama Canals. The impact on forecasts was a common theme that led us to invite Gary back to share his perspective on how to cope in an uncertain environment.

In this Lunch & Learn, Gary considered "Forecasting for the Rest of Us", a response to feedback he has received from publishers and their partners that the proposed model (demand, inventory, and supply) requires data that smaller companies are unable to collect or maintain. He proposed some practical, potentially more manageable approaches that offer the potential to improve forecasting without creating elaborate models.

Learn more: https://www.bisg.org/events/forecasti...