Presenters: Michael Gasiorek and Nicolo Tamberi, University of Sussex, UKTPO.

Discussant: Thomas Sampson, LSE

Chair: Creon Butler, Chatham House

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the impact of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on goods trade between the UK and the EU in the first seven months of 2021. Using a range of econometric methods, we estimate that the TCA reduced UK exports to the EU by 13.9% and UK imports from the EU by 24% over the period January-July 2021. Our results show that UK exports have been strongly affected in January 2021, but then recovered to normal levels in the subsequent months. Differently, UK imports appear to be affected quite homogeneously across all months of 2021. Moreover, while the downfall in imports is evenly distributed across product categories, the effect on UK exports is concentrated in a few products, mainly food and textiles.

This presentation was delivered on Tuesday 2 November 2021 as part of the UK Trade Policy Observatory’s fourth annual conference on Inclusive Trade Policy.