On 13 March 2024, around 190 international real estate market experts, researchers, central bankers and supervisors gathered for a SUERF I BAFFI Bocconi I BIS workshop on “Real estate markets – outlook, risks, scenarios, policies”.

After a decade-long surge in prices, driven by an extended period of exceptionally low (nominal and real) interest rates, by changing housing preferences due to covid and home-working as well as demographics, real estate prices have stopped rising or even started to fall. In real terms (i.e. adjusted for CPI inflation), they have in fact been falling quite substantially over the past two years. Commercial property markets are affected more severely than housing prices so far. Large property developers and owners are showing serious signs of stress, some prominent cases are in default. Owners and financing banks are about to face valuation losses, which may also have to be realized. What is the further outlook for housing markets? What are future driving factors on the demand and the supply side, both in the short and in the longer run? What are risks and side effects from real estate market developments? How will housing affordability evolve? How to square housing needs with environmental constraints and imperatives from climate protections? What measures might or should policy makers take, in the areas of structural, fiscal and macroprudential policies?

Speakers and timeline:

00:00:13 - Welcome and Introduction: Ernest Gnan, SUERF
00:03:01 - Moderation: Deniz Igan, BIS I SUERF

00:03:18 - Session 1: Recent developments, outlook, financial stability risks and macroprudential policies
00:00:18 - Real Estate Markets: Recent developments, outlook, financial stability risks: Barbara Jarmulska and Jan Hannes Lang, ECB
00:36:37 - Discussion by Prakash Loungani, Johns Hopkins University
00:53:10 – Q&A
01:03:56 - Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks: Ryan Banerjee, BIS
01:40:50 - Discussion by Nina Biljanovska, IMF
01:53:44 – Q&A

01:59:49 - Session 2: Real estate markets: structural and tax issues and policies
02:00:00 - New Housing Policy Challenges in the Era of Decarbonisation and Digitisation – Insights from Brick by Brick: Boris Cournède and Volker Ziemann, OECD
02:22:29 - Reforming Housing Taxation in OECD Countries: Sarah Perret, OECD
02:37:16 - Discussion by John Muellbauer, Nuffield College
02:50:45 – Q&A

02:55:20 - Concluding remarks and farewell by Deniz Igan

Presentation slides: https://www.suerf.org/events/real-est...

#realestate #housing markets #financialstability #residentialrealestate #commercialrealestate


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