Fisher Investments’ founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer Ken Fisher discusses how the upcoming US presidential election can affect stocks. Ken says president’s fourth years—election years—tend to be positive, with the S&P 500 averaging returns averaging 11% since 1925.* Ken explains this historical trend has been particularly strong when election years are preceded by a decline in president’s second years, as we saw in 2022.

However, Ken says election years can vary depending on which party holds the presidency. When there’s a Democrat incumbent, Ken notes markets steadily climb through the year. Conversely, returns are often back-end loaded with a sitting Republican. Ken acknowledges 2024’s race is somewhat unique given how well known the likely front runners are. But according to Ken, unless anything untoward happens to either candidate, he thinks stocks are likely to benefit from falling political uncertainty as the year unfolds.

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*Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 12/13/2023. S&P 500 total return in presidents’ fourth years.

Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.